← Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-4-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
44.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352
· median 1352
· range 1352–1352
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1159
Q1 1331
Q3 1467
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 29.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Suited | 11.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Ciel | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
